Are Current Electric Vehicle Sales Targets Too Ambitious?

Over the past half-decade, there has been a tremendous push towards transitioning and electrifying British roads, something that has progressed thanks to a coordinated push from everyone from raw material suppliers to electric car dealers.

However, throughout this entire electrification process, there have been doubters and naysayers claiming the targets are too ambitious, that the general public is not buying cars fast enough and leaping on any negative story as proof positive that the goals, however laudable, are impossible.

This is far from new, and the infamous discontinuation of the first practical EV was caused in part by ultimately successful calls for ambitious emissions targets to be reduced, but how true is it in this case?

To understand the issue, how it affects manufacturers and whether it is true or not, we need to explore every side of the debate, the motives and the precedent. 

 

Why Are Manufacturers Worried About Battery Electric Vehicle Targets?

The substance of the debate was voiced in a press release by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, previously a champion of the success of EVs, which claimed that the EV transition needs to be reviewed to ensure that the plan reflects current reality.

Specifically, the geopolitical and economic situation has changed in ways that have affected the take-up of new cars, with batteries and raw materials more expensive than expected, which has slowed the transition considerably.

Because of this, the percentage of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) stands at 23.4 per cent of new cars in 2025, 4.6 per cent short of the 28 per cent requirement.

The SMMT called for a review and what it describes as an “urgent review” and a “smarter route” to decarbonising British roads in the wake of a fundamental change in the landscape.

 

What Has Changed In The Electric Vehicle Sector?

The original targets, set in 2021 and largely kept following the 2024 General Election, were predicated on the notion that by the middle of the decade, EVs would be able to reach cost parity with petrol and diesel cars.

Part of the reason why EV transitions have struggled for decades to sell in significant numbers is less to do with capabilities and more to do with economics; batteries are complex and require a wide range of rare metals to produce at present, many of which need to be imported.

The year 2021 also led to a huge energy price shock, which disproportionately hit the UK due to its particular dependence on imported natural gas, which has caused energy prices to be 80 per cent higher than predicted.

A cost-of-living crisis has also hit demand for new cars more broadly, but has particularly affected demand for EVs, which, due to their relative newness, have not managed to reach prices that will allow everyone to afford them.

This has improved with highly desirable and more affordable new cars, as well as the Electric Car Grant, which incentivises the production of cheaper cars in general, but the argument is that this has, at best, created an artificial demand.

Similarly, pay-per-mile tax proposals and expensive public charging have caused the running costs to be higher than expected, even if they are cheaper than an equivalent petrol or diesel car.

 

Why Is It Important To Maintain Difficult EV Targets?

This situation is far from new; ambitious energy or emissions targets are often criticised before, during and often after they are either concluded and abandoned. This happened in the 1970s during the oil crisis years and again in the 1990s in California.

Ultimately, the “gas guzzler tax” of the 1970s, which ultimately failed to increase fuel efficiency by the time the Malaise Era ended, or the California zero emissions vehicle mandates, which inspired the creation of the GM EV1 but were abandoned due to aggressive lobbying, were unsuccessful.

According to Auto Express, the UK government is not going to bring forward their review of its EV sales plans despite the pressure from the SMMT and other industry figures to do so.

The timing of the calls is unusual; attempts to reign back ambitious targets under the guise of a “smarter route” to the same result in the middle of a conflict, which evokes the energy crises of the 1970s and highlights the need for the kinds of energy security which EVs can help provide, is a choice.

As well as this, sales targets tend to rely on a virtuous circle; early adopters prove the principle to others, who also buy, which drives down prices thanks to economies of scale and further inspires others to buy.

This means that it is very possible for sales to dramatically increase as the market reaches critical mass.