It is becoming increasingly clear that the future of transportation is rapidly becoming the present, as the question has changed from whether EVs will be the future of battery charging to what form they will take when they inevitably overtake petrol and diesel cars.

There are a lot of possibilities, but whichever one becomes dominant will shape the next generation of batteries, which in turn will shape the raw material supply chains surrounding them.

As batteries become increasingly more capable and more sophisticated, the EV is at a crossroads between two wildly different ways to get around issues of range, charging speed and capacity, and as roads become increasingly electric, it also increasingly becomes a zero-sum game.

In China, as reported by the Financial Times, several of the biggest domestic EV manufacturers are picking a side between ultra-fast battery charging and even faster battery swapping.

Can the two coexist, and if they cannot, which would win out in the marketplace?

The Case For Battery Swapping

Several major manufacturers, including Nio and CATL (battery supplier to Honda, Tesla, BMW, Ford and Toyota), have placed considerable money into developing battery swapping technologies, aided by venture capitalists betting on the technology.

Battery swapping involves the use of smaller, relatively more affordable batteries that are not sold to the buyer of a car but instead are supplied as part of a lease agreement.

They can be charged through plugging them in, but the much faster and more intended method is to quickly swap out the used battery and replace it with a new one, which if the swap itself is efficient, can be done more quickly and more efficiently than plugging a car in and waiting.

It is not a new technology; Reuters notes that there have been proposals as early as 1896 and active battery swapping services as early as 1912.

The idea is that it will make buying an electric car more affordable; the battery is typically the most expensive part of the unit, and developing rapid charging methods only makes it more costly. Instead, a car owner pays a monthly lease for the battery and can exchange it at any compatible swapping station.

Not only is it faster, but it is also considered to be more practical in dense urban areas where people simply cannot install a home charging point.

In terms of cost to battery suppliers, not only do the batteries need less capacity, but they can be cheaper to charge because they can take advantage of lower-priced off-peak electricity prices.

It could also be a vital part of the electrification of heavy goods vehicles, as electric batteries have not quite reached the vast ranges often needed for long-distance trucking.

The Case For Ultra-Fast Battery Charging

EV batteries have reached a stage where 200-mile capacities are the minimum expected for any battery outside of extremely cheap cars and quadricycles, which, for many commuters, is enough to ensure they can travel to work and back each day, whilst only needing to charge once.

As battery technology improves, so too will these ranges increase, which has increasingly made battery swapping seem like the weapon to fight a previous war.

Battery swapping has been attempted several times for the same reasons, and every time they have profoundly failed.

GeVeCo by General Electric, startup Better Place and even Tesla all tried swappable batteries, and all found issues with the switching process, practicality concerns and a lack of interest from customers. Tesla opted to set up a network of “supercharger” high-speed charging stations instead.

At this point, a three-minute battery swap is not that much more beneficial than a five-minute battery charge, and the latter is far easier for both customers and manufacturers.

The biggest issue is standardisation and ensuring that cars are designed to have batteries that can be swapped. This can be particularly expensive to research, to the point that many manufacturers prefer to focus on making higher-capacity batteries instead.

As well as this, all battery swapping does is replace issues with limited charging infrastructure with limited battery swapping stations. The problem is the same with both systems, but at least with charging stations, there is a degree of interoperability.

Can The Technologies Co-exist?

Ultimately, whilst there will be some places where battery swapping is preferable and thus can coexist with a network of chargers, a moment in time charging technology is being rapidly rolled out, which will force nations and manufacturers to choose one or the other. 

In many countries, the die has already been cast in favour of bigger batteries and faster charging, and it would take a dramatically improved offering in order to change hearts and minds and avoid yet another battery swap bust.